Coronavirus Thread

JackieOnLine

Moderator
Staff member
I know there are a lot of stories out there: this one is why leaders need to act NOW.

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:
The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
 
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southernlady

Administrator
Staff member
Hubby and I practice social distancing quite a bit anyway. We’ve always said it’s too peopley out there. Our only concern is how this will affect our ability to get to our next campground and the doctor appts scheduled in that area. But since those aren’t scheduled til late April, we may have a clue ahead of time.
 

DianaCox

Bad Cop
Non-essential medical appointments may need to be canceled. I wouldn’t want to spend any unnecessary time in the waiting room or examination room in which there may be or have been people shedding virus.
 

southernlady

Administrator
Staff member
Non-essential medical appointments may need to be canceled. I wouldn’t want to spend any unnecessary time in the waiting room or examination room in which there may be or have been people shedding virus.
Understand but his sleep doctor appointment and our eye appointments can’t be rescheduled into May or June. They are 4-5 weeks away as of now.
 

DianaCox

Bad Cop
I understand. I’m taking Dad to three appointments next week and they are all somewhat important.

Least important: he’s had an occlusion in his sinuses on one side for years that was noted to be worsening in his last brain MRI. He just completed a course of ABX and prednisone, and they may want to try to do an in-office procedure to open the sinus passage. While not critical, it may be contributing to his imbalance and he also has no sense of smell, and has been losing weight. But the ENT is where people in the waiting room are coughing and sneezing.

Wednesday is the cystoscopy. Very important.

Thursday he sees a very high ranking neurosurgeon who agreed to take him (at the personal behest of the neurologist) for evaluation of the possibility that his dementia and gait disturbance (he’s fallen twice since he moved here and is now using a cane) are TREATABLE (at least to some extent), because his brain MRIs for years shown evidence of normal pressure hydrocephalus. It is POSSIBLE that “minor” brain surgery - inserting a ventriculoperitoneal shunt - could greatly improve his functioning. Or it could kill him. Or he might not be a candidate because it’s not NPH or because he also has irreversible regular dementia. So we can’t miss that one.

If he passes the first screening, there is a test to see if a shunt is likely to help - a large volume spinal tap. They test his dementia and gait before the procedure, and then a little while (hours) afterwards. If there is (temporary) improvement, that means a shunt could be helpful.

Or he could get COVID-19 in the next few weeks and it could all be moot.
 

southernlady

Administrator
Staff member
Thursday he sees a very high ranking neurosurgeon who agreed to take him (at the personal behest of the neurologist) for evaluation of the possibility that his dementia and gait disturbance (he’s fallen twice since he moved here and is now using a cane) are TREATABLE (at least to some extent), because his brain MRIs for years shown evidence of normal pressure hydrocephalus. It is POSSIBLE that “minor” brain surgery - inserting a ventriculoperitoneal shunt - could greatly improve his functioning. Or it could kill him. Or he might not be a candidate because it’s not NPH or because he also has irreversible regular dementia. So we can’t miss that one.

If he passes the first screening, there is a test to see if a shunt is likely to help - a large volume spinal tap. They test his dementia and gait before the procedure, and then a little while (hours) afterwards. If there is (temporary) improvement, that means a shunt could be helpful.
Yeah, Charles had to go thru all the testing as well. But just getting his diagnosis was difficult cause he was still in his late 40’s and according to a neurosurgeon I fired, “no one under 60 gets NPH”.

He‘s had his ventricular shunt since Feb 2006. Had it replaced in 2007/2008. In the last few months, he’s shown signs that it’s either failing or the shunt needs tweaking. He has an appt July 2nd with a neurosurgeon near Boston (will be a day trip for that appointment) to see what is going on. He fell last weekend while walking the dogs, but in fairness, it was dark and with 2 dogs, he had no hand for a flashlight. We have since gotten a small headlamp for him, plus he tries to take them out separately.

I understand. I’m taking Dad to three appointments next week and they are all somewhat important.
We are doing our best to avoid what we can. We did have a grocery run today....it was zooey and I’ve never seen that many men shopping all alone.
 
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hilary1617

First time at the rodeo.
I'm immunocompromised. I had an iron infusion 1 of 2 at the cancer center side of the local hospital today. I wore gloves - the kind my mom wore in the Jackie Kennedy fashion heydays, mainly to stop myself from touching my face. I kept a distance from others. I had a mask in my pocket, which I intended to don if judging by cars in the parking lot and then looking in the doors, it seemed that I couldn't stay at least 3-6 feet apart from others. It was low volume, so I didn't wear the mask.

My son has a second neurosurgery scheduled for June 17 at MD Anderson in Houston to remove his latest tumor. I worry that date may be in jeopardy, but will see how things go.

I'm breathing a sigh of relief that both kids are out of school until April 18th thanks to our proactive school department. My workplace has divided all HQ employees into two teams that are not allowed to mix. Team A (my team) is out of the office for the next two weeks (working remote from home); Team B is in office for next two weeks. Then we will switch. We have open floorplan, so every other desk will be left empty....

We are not allowed to visit my Dad in memory care, per state of IL edict. Only medically-necessary visitation is permitted. Memory care has set up daily Skype "visits" so all residents can have individual conversations with their families. They also are spreading folks out physically as much as possible in a shared care situation and have shut down the on premises movie theater, art studio and billiards room. I appreciate the precaution.

This is tough, but necessary.
 

hilary1617

First time at the rodeo.
Below is the speech that one of Hannah's classmate's mom gave to the school board last night to convince our district to close the buildings:

A message of hope

My fellow parents, members of the board, and school administrators, I speak to you tonight, not with a message of fear, but with a message of hope.

My name is Mia Levy and I am the parent of two District 112 students. I am a physician and the director of the Rush University Cancer Center. My statements tonight are not made as an official representative of my healthcare organization, but as a fellow member of our beloved community, and out of a deep sense of obligation and hope.

This week, the Illinois governor declared a state of emergency related to COVID-19, and as of this afternoon, there have been 32 confirmed cases in the Chicago area. Analysis from the World Health Organization indicates that each person infected with COVID-19 transmits the disease to more people than for seasonal influenza, and the rate of severe and critical cases is also higher than for the seasonal flu. The elderly and immuno-compromised are at highest risk for severe or critical cases of COVID-19.

Now is not the time for complacency. It is time for decisive action. Our school district is faced with the need to make a timely decision to close our schools that could dramatically impact the health of our entire community. Your actions will save lives—maybe not yours or your kids’, but maybe your kids’ grandparents, your coworkers, and others in your communities, schools, and congregations.

In speaking with friends and family, many express a sense of defeat. They anticipate that each of us will inevitably get COVID-19, and that changing any of our regular routines would be pointless. I am here to tell you loudly and confidently that this does not need to be the destiny of our community.

There is strong evidence from past epidemics and lessons from COVID-19 so far, that early implementation of social distancing measures can significantly mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and save lives.

Social distancing limits the spread of disease by keeping people from congregating in large groups. This includes keeping people out of settings like schools, work, and shopping centers where they are together closely for an extended period of time. Another aim is to avoid mass gatherings like concerts, movies, religious services, and sporting events. When out in public, maintain a distance of about six feet apart from one other.

Evidence shows that the earlier social distancing measures are taken during an epidemic, the more lives can be saved. In the 1918 flu pandemic, Philadelphia waited 14 days to take broad social distancing measures, whereas St. Louis took immediate action. The death rates in Philadelphia peaked at 250 per 100,000 people overwhelming the capacity of their healthcare system. In contrast, St. Louis peaked at 50 per deaths per 100,000 people, significantly limiting the impact on their community.

Similarly, during this current COVID-19 outbreak, countries like Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong took early social distancing measures resulting in a significantly lower rate of transmission. Italy on the other hand took 16 days to take sweeping action at the cost of a rapidly rising rate of transmission throughout Europe.

Aggressive social distancing measures may seem extreme to some people. But human nature is often difficult to overcome. A Missouri father and his family were under self-quarantine after one of his children tested positive for COVID-19. He broke quarantine to attend a father-daughter dance with another one of his children, risking exposure to his entire community and resulting in the school’s closure. I can imagine the burden of this father’s decision, not wanting to disappoint his child who was not sick but instructed not to attend this very special event, breaking his previous commitment to her. Social distancing measures strive to help people by eliminating these day-to-day decisions, by canceling social events to prevent people from congregating in large groups.

Closing schools will have a major ripple effect on all other activities in our community. It is the strongest signal we can send to other organizations that now is the time to act broadly to implement social distancing measures in our community.

I encourage you to rise up and be part of the solution and this message of hope. Petition our schools to close earlier than later, postpone birthday parties and I dare say Mitzvah events, reach out to your children’s sporting event commissions and encourage them to cancel or postpone sports competitions, cancel work and personal travel including your spring break plans, implement work from home plans for you and your employees, encourage those over 60 and with medical conditions to stay home and check on them regularly.

As a physician leader whose is responsible for safeguarding the well-being of my vulnerable patient population and the healthcare professionals committed to caring for them, I believe the strongest message of hope I can give tonight for them is to encourage you to act now to be part of the solution. Close our schools.
 

k9ophile

Well-Known Member
I've been social distancing most of my adult life. But now I'm out three days a week while my husband is at PT. I try to get things like grocery shopping done while he's there. Today it hit me: I live in the town where the tornadoes in TN hit the hardest. At first I was thrilled to see people from all over the country coming to help clear debris, feed volunteers, etc. Now I'm just more than a little concerned that all these people may have brought the virus. I'm taking all the precautions. With our community resources being taxed due to the tornado, we do not need the virus on top of all of it.
 

Georgepds

Well-Known Member
I'm immunocompromised. ......

My son has a second neurosurgery scheduled for June 17 at MD Anderson in Houston to remove his latest tumor. I worry that date may be in jeopardy, but will see how..........
Condolences on your son's problem... and best wishes his , and your, way
 

Georgepds

Well-Known Member
... I live in the town where the tornadoes in TN hit the hardest. At first I was thrilled to see people from all over the country coming to help clear debris, feed volunteers, etc. Now I'm just more than a little concerned that all these people may have brought the virus. ....
"It's Always Something." Roseanne Roseannadanna
 

JackieOnLine

Moderator
Staff member
great info about Social Distancing which I'm going to be doing suddenly as all my plans for the weekend were cancelled.

I re-named the thread to be more general.
 

DianaCox

Bad Cop
Engineering view of COVID-19

My patent law listserv (a mix of engineers and scientists) has temporarily turned its attention to discussions around the pandemic. This was just posted, and I thought was an interesting observation. Could it be this simple?
~~~~
Those of us with computer engineering backgrounds are acutely aware of the difference between linear processes, processes that grow n-squared, and processes that grow exponentially. You have to handle them completely differently. If something bad exhibits exponential growth, that often becomes the single biggest issue that drives the entire rest of the design.

Covid-19 is an exponential process -- on average each infected person infects 2.2 more within about 10 days. That's the fact that should be driving everything else. Airplanes arrive linearly -- they're way far down the list of anything worth paying attention to or alienating allies over.

The right action is what the Chinese and Italians did -- one two-week national quarantine. As we see with Apple reopening its stores today [in China, right?], a national quarantine works. If you stop new infections for only ten days, then you can get enough control that you can treat remaining infections as a series of point outbreaks, rather than an epidemic abroad in the population. You can do it early, or you can wait another ten days for another doubling of the exponential process.

The public health people understand that. Unfortunately some numerically-impaired and "alternative facts" people don't.
 
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